天然气战争:俄罗斯石油禁运

With the Russo-Ukrainian War ongoing, sanctions against 俄罗斯 have become increasingly common. Western nations are casting a wide net in the hopes that bankrupting 俄罗斯n businesses will destabilize the country and nullify its ability to wage war. 最新的金融攻势来了，而且规模很大. 截至12月5日, the European Union and G7 countries have decided to cap 俄罗斯n 石油 in the hope of reducing Moscow's export revenues. 

Though the whole situation effectively b石油s down to Western oligarchs trying to punish the 俄罗斯n oligarchs that operate the county’s lucrative energy sector. 七国集团( 正式的七国集团)是由选举产生的官员组成的团体, 未经选举的官员, and wealthy business magnates operating as an inter-governmental political forum wielding real power. 它包括加拿大, 法国, 德国, 意大利, 日本, 英国, 以及美国——欧盟是一个极具影响力的国家, non-enumerated成员. 

Several of these nations had already vowed to ban the importation of 俄罗斯n 石油 early in 2022. 美国在战争开始时就这么做了, 与 Biden administration often citing this as the primary cause for elevated energy prices. 然而，事情的真相是 2021年，燃料价格已经大幅飙升 and that 俄罗斯n embargoes had a much bigger impact on the European nations that were more reliant on imported fuel. 不管, the war certainly hasn’t helped consumers living anywhere on Earth save on their energy bills. 

与此同时, 石油公司继续报告创纪录的利润. 

That’s likely a more complicated backstory than you’re accustomed to getting on why there's not enough 石油. But it’s important to note that the geopolitical decisions being made around the war in Ukraine cannot be b石油ed down to everyone just wanting the conflict to be over. 石油输出国组织(OPEC), 多年来一直与俄罗斯商界广泛结盟, pulled back on production after being asked by President Joe Biden to open the taps in the hope that it would tamp down global fuel prices. They, like Western 石油 producers, want to get the maximum amount of money per barrel that’s possible. 

最新一轮的制裁正是为了解决这个问题. 

从今天开始, the United States will introduce price caps on 俄罗斯n 石油 that are designed to bankrupt the Kremlin while also helping avoid any forthcoming price shocks on already expensive fuels. The initiative is supposed to cap 石油 at $60 per barrel and has already been endorsed by other G7 nations, 除了欧盟之外. 

然而, 欧盟也采取了一些自己的举措, starting with new rules that would prohibit member nations from buying most forms of 俄罗斯n crude. 总的计划已经讨论了相当长一段时间, with critics saying that it might not make a big difference considering how many regional sections already exist against 俄罗斯. Industry analysts have likewise suggested that both initiatives probably won’t serve as deathblows for the 俄罗斯n war effort. 

根据 《威尼斯人平台注册送38元》, nobody really expected there to be an immediate impact on 石油 supplies anyway – mainly due to the fact that energy companies have started buying more 石油 from places like the United States, 巴西, 圭亚那, 以及中东地区. 美国.S. 甚至还在讨论解除对委内瑞拉的制裁 以帮助填补禁止俄罗斯燃料留下的真空.  

Analysts and traders are also reportedly concerned that these price caps could be nearly impossible to administer, 与 次 至少有一位专家认为这笔交易可能仍然有效. 尽管他之前在美国国防部工作.S. State Department by leading the planning and implementation of sanctions to be levied against 俄罗斯, 因此，他的观点无疑是有偏见的. 

“I suspect the compromise that was reached gives the policy the best chance it could have to succeed,爱德华·菲什曼说, 哥伦比亚大学全球能源政策中心的高级研究学者, 告诉 纽约时报. 

最终, the whole plan hinges on shippers and insurers refusing to haul any cargo where the 石油 is priced above the $60-a-barrel limit. 到今天为止, the average per-barrel price is just above $80 and is poised to go up as we move deeper into the cold-weather months. That means they’ll be turning away business if 石油 producers fail or refuse to adhere to the demanded caps. 但随着全球石油市场完全陷入混乱, 同时也非常赚钱, 新的黑市遍地开花. 还有很多国家, 中国和印度是最大的, 他们会很高兴地继续从卖家那里买进. 这两个国家同样将受到这一决定的最大影响, 因为七国集团国家已经实施禁运，禁止他们从俄罗斯购买产品. 

同时, 俄罗斯 has said it’s not going to adhere to any price caps and even threatened to cut off supplies to countries that comply 与 price-cap arrangement. 我们已经看到今年削减天然气供应对德国等国家的影响. 如果俄罗斯对石油也这么做的话, 整个市场很有可能变得完全无法管理. 尽管有人可能会说，这种情况已经发生，而且只会更糟. 

“这些措施无疑将对全球能源市场的稳定产生影响,“德米特里·佩斯科夫, 克里姆林宫发言人, 据报道周一说.

The G7 believes some of the sting resulting from the above sanctions could be helped by leaning into climate initiatives. 这些计划是在6月份讨论的, 七国集团领导人谴责“俄罗斯对乌克兰的非法和不合理的侵略战争”,” and vowed to “take immediate action to secure energy supply and reduce price surges driven by extraordinary market conditions.”

根据 国际可持续发展研究所(IISD), the group then promised to “stabilize and transform the global economy while tackling rising costs of living” and “reaffirm commitment to phase out … dependency on 俄罗斯n energy, 在气候和环境目标上不妥协.然后，他们承诺“在……经济安全方面进行协调”, 加强供应链韧性，确保公平竞争环境.” 

与其他据称旨在帮助压低油价的近期举措一样, 我不建议你屏息以待油价下跌. 有 有无数的原因可以解释为什么现在的市场对消费者来说如此不稳定 俄罗斯并不是故事的全部. Some of this amounts to little more than corporate warfare and maximizing political influence. Western governments also don’t seem to have much of an exit strategy in place for these sanctions against 俄罗斯. 许多人要求政权更迭或完全从乌克兰撤军, 这两件事似乎都不是俄罗斯领导层感兴趣的. 法国的和平谈判一再陷入僵局, 与 Kremlin saying that the West is asking for far too much and that there are no assurances that NATO will keep its distance. 

不管你从哪个角度来看, 听起来乌克兰局势还远未解决. Due to the fact that large swaths of the world are already looking at record-breaking energy prices going into next year, 不要指望未来几个月汽油会变得便宜. 形势似乎在以各种可能的方式阻碍着这种可能性, 与 only real relief coming to the citizens of countries that can supply their own energy needs – and even that is likely to be modest considering it makes more business sense to sell to countries that are desperate for 石油 and thereby willing to pay higher prices.